EPL Analysis and GW 27 Prediction

A data driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics

This is an article on my EPL Prediction series. You can check out the prediction for Game Week 26 and how it fared against the actual performance here.

Analysis up to Game-week 27

The Premier League seems to be very interesting at the moment. As Klopp said, it appears that City is running away with the title. However the competition is very fierce for the top 4 finish. Just 9 points separates the team placed second from the team placed 8th.
We may have a completely different top 4 after just two gameweeks.

EPL Table (Image by Author)
xG Scored vs xG Conceded (Image by Author)
xG Scored vs xG Conceded (Image by Author)
Delta xG (Image by Author)

Game Week 27 Predictions

Before proceeding to the predictions, let me clarify that this is a very simple algorithm just based on past xG, so only baseline performance can be expected. The algorithm also fails to predict high scoring games. The model also does not take into account the team selection, absence of players due to injuries/suspension, formation, tactical changes etc.

GW 27 Predictions(Image by Author)

Predictions vs Actual Results

Predictions vs actuals
Photo by Tim Bechervaise on Unsplash

Carpe Diem!

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