EPL Analysis and GW 26 Prediction

A data driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics

This is an article on my EPL Prediction series. You can check out the prediction for Game Week 25 and how it fared against the actual performance here.

Expected Goals or xG is the parameter used for prediction. If you are interested in understanding the algorithm for prediction, I recommend that you check out this article where it is explained in detail.

Game Week 26 Predictions

Before proceeding to the predictions, let me clarify that this is a very simple algorithm just based on past xG, so only baseline performance can be expected. The algorithm also fails to predict high scoring games. The model also does not take into account the team selection, absence of players due to injuries/suspension, formation, tactical changes etc.

However, the model has been performing pretty well in predicting the momentum of the matches. You can check out how the actual performance fared against the predictions made for the previous game week below.

Predictions for Game Week 25 are provided in the table below.
The absolute value of GD shows the competitiveness of the match. The higher the value, more one sided the match is expected to be and higher the accuracy of prediction.
The lower the value of GD, the more the match could be anybody’s game. Positive value of GD means Home win and Negative value means Away team win.

GW 26 is the biggest gameweek with 17 matches. All teams except Westham, Arsenal, Leeds, Southampton, Brighton and Newcastle have two games each this game week.

GW 26 Predictions(Image by Author)

Brighton’s visit to Westbrom is expected to be the most one sided match of the gameweek with respect to delta xG. However, Brighton having hugely under-performed in terms of both xG scored and xG conceded, it would be great if they could get a positive result.
Manchester City is expected to comfortably win both their home games this gameweek. Liverpool and Manchester United are

GW 26 predicted delta xG (Image by Author)

Man United and Brighton are estimated to secure 3 points comfortably from their home outings. In the Merseyside Derby scheduled on this Saturday, the Reds have an upper hand over the Toffees. Burnley and Fulham are also expected to outperform their rivals at home.
West Ham vs Spurs, Leeds vs Southampthon and Wolves vs Leeds could be anybody’s game with stats slightly in favor of the hosts.
Villa vs Leicester seems to the a match between equals, with the hosts having a very slight advantage over the hosts.

Predictions Vs Actual Results

Expectations vs Predictions

The algorithm managed to predict 13 out of 17 matches correctly, with an accuracy of around 76%.

Photo by Jannik Skorna on Unsplash

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