EPL Analysis and GW 25 Prediction

A data driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics

Analysis up to Game-week 24

The Premier League seems to be very interesting at the moment. As Klopp said, it appears that City is running away with the title. However the competition is very fierce for the top 4 finish. Just 10 points separates the team placed second from the team placed 9th. We may have a completely different top 4 after just two gameweeks.

EPL Table (Image by Author)
xG Scored vs xG Conceded (Image by Author)
xG Scored vs xG Conceded (Image by Author)
Delta xG (Image by Author)

Game Week 25 Predictions

Before proceeding to the predictions, let me clarify that this is a very simple algorithm just based on past xG, so only baseline performance can be expected. The algorithm also fails to predict high scoring games. The model also does not take into account the team selection, absence of players due to injuries/suspension, formation, tactical changes etc.

GW 25 Predictions(Image by Author)
GW 25 predicted delta xG (Image by Author)

How the Predictions fare against the actual performance will be updated after the gameweek.

Photo by Vienna Reyes on Unsplash

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