EPL Title: Do Liverpool Stand a Chance?

How could the EPL title race turn out with just three matches left to play.

Abhijith Chandradas


We are nearing the end of another fabulous season of English Premier League. Manchester City and Liverpool have been playing top quality football for the entirety of the season and have left the rest of the pack miles behind turning the league into a two-horse race. The title race has been very exciting and drawn to the wire. We will most likely have to wait till the final game of the season to crown the champions. The title cannot be decided not before the penultimate game-week.

The Reds dropping points at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has strengthened Manchester City’s title defense and dented the Reds’ quadruple dream. Pep Guardiola’s lads currently have a 3 point lead over the Reds with 3 matches to play in the league.

City have 86 points and Liverpool have 83 points after playing 35 matches each. City has one hand on the cup, however, everything is not lost for the Reds, technically Liverpool can still win the league.

Being a football fan primes you to believe in miracles and expect the unexpected.

Three matches each for either sides could result in a possible 729 outcomes. Out of these, 573(78.60%) are in the favor of the citizens whereas 92(12.62%) favors the Reds.

Title race probabilities (Image by author)

Champions on Goal-difference?

There is 8.78% chance that Man City and Liverpool have a tie on points on the top of the table and goal difference could be the factor deciding the winner.

Liverpool goal machine enjoyed better goal difference for the majority of the season but they have been rather quiet in front of the goal recently. On the other hand, City are on beast mode of late scoring 14 goals in the last three matches while conceding just once.



Abhijith Chandradas

Data Analyst | Hacker | Financial Analyst | Freelancer | IIM MBA | Opensource | Democratize Knowledge | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLpBd4gzfIBXm2BPpdHOWdQ