EPL Analysis and GW 38 Prediction

A data-driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics

Analysis up to Game-week 37

Epl Table (Image by Author)
xG scored vs xG conceded per match (Image by Author)
xG scored vs xG conceded per match (Image by Author)
delta xG per game (Image by author)
Delta xG (Image by Author)

Game Week 38 Predictions

Before proceeding to the predictions, let me clarify that this is a very simple algorithm just based on past xG, so only baseline performance can be expected. The algorithm also fails to predict high scoring games. The model also does not take into account the team selection, absence of players due to injuries/suspension, formation, tactical changes etc.

EPL Analysis and GW 38 Prediction

Predictions for Game Week 38 are provided in the table below.
The absolute value of GD shows the competitiveness of the match. The higher the value, more one sided the match is expected to be and higher the accuracy of prediction.
The lower the value of GD, the more the match could be anybody’s game. Positive value of GD means Home win and Negative value means Away team win.

Prediction for gameweek 38
Delta xG Predicted (Image by Author)

Update: Predictions Vs Actual Results

Predictions vs actual results

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