EPL Analysis and GW 24 Prediction

A data driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics

This is an article on my EPL Prediction series. You can check out the prediction for Game Week 23 and how it fared against the actual performance here.

Analysis up to Game-week 22

EPL Table (Image by Author)
xG Scored vs xG Conceded (Image by Author)
xG Scored vs xG Conceded (Image by Author)
Delta xG (Image by Author)

Game Week 24 Predictions

Before proceeding to the predictions, let me clarify that this is a very simple algorithm just based on past xG, so only baseline performance can be expected. The algorithm also fails to predict high scoring games. The model also does not take into account the team selection, absence of players due to injuries/suspension, formation, tactical changes etc.

GW 24 Predictions(Image by Author)
GW 24 predicted delta xG (Image by Author)

Update : Predictions vs Actual performance

Photo by Samuel Regan-Asante on Unsplash

Carpe Diem!

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