English Premier League: Analysis up to GW 7and GW8 Prediction

A data-driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics

Expected Goals or xG is the parameter used for prediction. If you are interested in understanding the algorithm for prediction, I recommend that you check out this article where it is explained in detail.

Analysis up to Game Week 7

Going into the international break, after GW7, the Blues are on the top of the table with 16 points, 1 point clear of the Reds, who remains to be the only unbeaten side in the League.

Man United, Manchester City, Everton and Brighton are close behind with 14 points each.

The league is highly competitive and just 6 points separates top 11 teams.

Norwich finally managed to pick up a point from the stalemate at Turf Moor. Southampton, Newcastle and Burnley are also remain win-less so far.

The Reds have been the most attacking team so far creating more than 2.5xG per game. Manchester City is the only other team in the league which manage to create more than 2 xG per game. The Blues, the Hammers, the Toffees and the Red Devils have managed to create more than 1.5 xG per game. Newly promoted sides-Norwich and Watford are lacking creativity as they are not even able to create 1 xG per game. All the other teams create between 1 and 1.5 xG per game.

When it comes to defensive performance, Manchester City is head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. Man City has conceded only about 0.5 xG per game, despite facing the best attacking sides- Liverpool and Chelsea.
Norwich is in the lowest position conceding 2 xG per game.

Quadrant Analysis

Man City and Liverpool are in a different league with very strong attack and defense. Wolves, Brighton…