English Premier League: Analysis up to GW 13 and GW14 Prediction

A data-driven attempt in predicting English Premier League results using xG Statistics

Expected Goals or xG is the parameter used for prediction. If you are interested in understanding the algorithm for prediction, I recommend that you check out this article where it is explained in detail.

Analysis up to Game Week 7

After GW13, the league appears to be a three horse race. Blues are on the top of the table with 30 points, 1 point clear of Manchester City who are followed by the Reds who are just one point behind.

London clubs Westham and Arsenal are at 4th and 5th position with 23 points each.

Wolves, Spurs, Man United, Leicester and Brighton makes up the top half, they are separated by just 2 points. Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle are yet to cross double digit points. Newcastle is yet to register a win this season.

xG scored vs xG conceded

Liverpool is the most attacking side in the league registering more than 2.5 xG per game. Manchester City is the only other team which has scored more than 2 xG per game. Chelsea who are table toppers are the third best attacking side registering more than 1.5 xG per game. Villans, Newcastle and Norwich are struggling to create chances failing to score even one xG per game.

Manchester City is the best defensive side conceding about 0.5 xG per game. Chelsea and Crystal Palace are only other teams who have conceded less than 1 xG per game. Watford is the weakest attacking side conceding almost 2 xG per game. Newcastle, Norwich and Manchester United have also put up very weak defensive performance this season.

Quadrant Analysis

Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea are in a different league with very strong attack and defense.